A new study published in Global Change Biology provides valuable new data that highlights how species extinction risk is accelerating due to rapid climate change and an increase in extreme climate events, such as glacial calving and sea ice loss. The study, led by Stephanie Jenouvrier, associate scientist, and seabird ecologist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and co-authored by an international team of scientists, policy experts, ecologists, and climate scientists, provided pivotal research and projections tailored for use by the U.S Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS). Their work proposed that emperor penguins be listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act and this week, USFWS submitted that listing proposal.
The study presents the projected dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios using a climate?dependent meta-population model that includes for the first time, the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies.
The study demonstrates that extreme events impact the resiliency, redundancy, and representation (3Rs) of emperor penguins. Resiliency is the ability to withstand stochastic (or random) disturbance, which may be measured through population size, growth rate, and connectivity among populations. Redundancy is the ability to withstand catastrophic events, and considers the number, distribution, resiliency, and connectivity of populations. Representation is the ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and is related to capturing the geographic, genetic, and life history variation that exists across the species' ecological setting. Together, the 3Rs encompass aspects that contribute to species persistence (e.g., demography, spatial distribution, diversity) and are important for assessing climate threats in the foreseeable future. The study shows that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy-system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100.
The novel results described in the paper also have important implications for assessing climate change risks to other species. According to the authors, rapid climate change is increasing stress on species and ecosystems, and the risk of extinction will accelerate with continued global warming. Emperor penguins live in the icy coastal regions of Antarctica, but current climate models project significant declines in Antarctic Sea ice to which the emperor penguins' life cycle is closely tied. The study reinforces the need for legal recognition and enhanced precautionary management, particularly given continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions.
A new study published today in Global Change Biology provides valuable new data that highlights how species extinction risk is accelerating due to rapid climate change and an increase in extreme climate events, such as glacial calving and sea ice loss. The study, led by Stephanie Jenouvrier, associate scientist, and seabird ecologist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and co-authored by an international team of scientists, policy experts, ecologists, and climate scientists, provided pivotal research and projections tailored for use by the U.S Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS). Their work proposed that emperor penguins be listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act and this week, USFWS submitted that listing proposal.
The study presents the projected dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios using a climate?dependent meta-population model that includes for the first time, the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies.
The study demonstrates that extreme events impact the resiliency, redundancy, and representation (3Rs) of emperor penguins. Resiliency is the ability to withstand stochastic (or random) disturbance, which may be measured through population size, growth rate, and connectivity among populations. Redundancy is the ability to withstand catastrophic events, and considers the number, distribution, resiliency, and connectivity of populations. Representation is the ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and is related to capturing the geographic, genetic, and life history variation that exists across the species' ecological setting. Together, the 3Rs encompass aspects that contribute to species persistence (e.g., demography, spatial distribution, diversity) and are important for assessing climate threats in the foreseeable future. The study shows that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy-system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100.
The novel results described in the paper also have important implications for assessing climate change risks to other species. According to the authors, rapid climate change is increasing stress on species and ecosystems, and the risk of extinction will accelerate with continued global warming. Emperor penguins live in the icy coastal regions of Antarctica, but current climate models project significant declines in Antarctic Sea ice to which the emperor penguins' life cycle is closely tied. The study reinforces the need for legal recognition and enhanced precautionary management, particularly given continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions.